FW: Free Currency Tips : Indian FX/debt factors to watch - Dec 1

Indian FX/debt factors to watch - Dec 1
Mon Dec 1, 2014 8:42am IST

GLOBAL MARKETS ROUNDUP

* Gold prices tumbled on Monday after Swiss voters
overwhelmingly rejected proposals to boost gold reserves in a
referendum, joining the broad rout in commodities that sent oil
prices to five-year lows and copper to four-year lows.

* The dollar rose to a new seven-year high against the yen
on Monday amid growing concerns over deflationary pressure in
Japan in the face of sliding oil prices.
* U.S. crude fell more than $2 to a five-year low in Asian
trade on Monday, while Brent futures touched a fresh four-year
low, extending a steep sell-off after OPEC decided not to cut
production last week, keeping markets well supplied.
* U.S. benchmark and long-dated Treasury yields fell for a
sixth straight session and notched their second straight monthly
declines on Friday on signs of disinflation and month-end
buying.

LOCAL MARKETS PREVIOUS CLOSE
* BSE index 28,693.99 (up 0.90 pct)
* NSE index 8,588.25 (up 1.11 pct)
* Rupee 62.0250/0350 per dlr (61.8750/8850)
* 10-year bond yield 8.09 pct (8.15 pct)
* 5-year OIS rate 7.14 pct (7.23 pct)
* 1-year OIS rate 7.75 pct (7.82 pct)
* Call money 7.85/7.90 pct (7.70/7.75 pct)

KEY FACTORS/EVENTS TO WATCH
* Pre RBI policy meeting between finance minister and RBI
Governor.


USD/INR NDFs (NY closing prices)
For up-to-date prices, double click
Open High Low Close Volume
62.29 62.53 62.30 62.50-53 N/A

FII INVESTMENTS-EQUITIES (Net dollars)
Nov 28* $150.82 mln
Month-to-date** (Nov) $2.23 bln
Year-to-date** $15.93 bln
* Provisional NSE data
** Source: Data as per the latest custodial filing as on
Nov. 28 on NSDL's website.

FII INVESTMENTS-DEBT (Net Dollars) Debt
Nov. 27 $123.65 mln
Month-to-date (Nov) $1.90 bln
Year-to-date $24.44 bln
* Source: Data as per latest custodial filing as on Nov. 28
on NSDL's website.

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES TRADING (Net buy/sell, in rupees)
Nov 28
Foreign Banks 12.57 bln
Public Sector Banks 4.82 bln
Private Sector Banks 15.06 bln
Mutual Funds -13.34 bln
Others -0.96 bln
Primary Dealers -18.15 bln

ISSUANCES
Treasury bills 140 bln rupees Dec. 3

LIQUIDITY
* The Reserve Bank of India India cbank sets cut-off rate of
7.99 percent at three-day variable rate reverse repo
auction
* Indian banks' refinancing with RBI falls to 69.42 billion
rupees.
* Indian banks' cash balances with RBI at 3.36 trillion
rupees.

($1 = 62.0500 Indian rupee)

India rupee inches higher; month-end dlr demand offsets inflows : 26.11.2014

India rupee inches higher; month-end dlr demand offsets inflows

 

FACTORS TO WATCH

 

 * Australian dlr slides to 4-yr low against greenback

 * Oil slump reverberates after Nigeria currency devaluation

 * ECB outlook lifts Europe shrs, Australian dlr sags

 * Foreign institutional investor flows

 * For data on currency futures

 

* Rupee ends at 61.8450/8550 per dlr vs 61.86/87 on Tuesday

* INR seen in 61.70 to 62.10 range until end of week -trader

* Rate cut by India cbank may boost foreign fund flows, rupee

The Indian rupee closed marginally stronger on Wednesday after being held in a tight range as dollar inflows into the domestic share markets were offset by demand for the greenback from importers looking to meet month-end commitments.
Sentiment was also cautious ahead of the release of July-September economic growth data on Friday and the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review on December 2.India economic growth probably slowed to 5.1 percent in the July-September quarter from a year ago, but economists polled by Reuters doubted whether that would be enough to persuade the central bank to cut interest rates just yet. "We are likely to see the rupee in a 61.70 to 62.10 range this week as rising dollar demand towards month-end may hurt the rupee," "Rupee resistance has now gradually shifted to 61.50 from 60.00 earlier as we see good dollar buying from exporters and the RBI at that level. We are likely to see the rupee remaining broadly stable between 61.50 to 62.50 until year-end," he added. The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.8450/8550 per dollar versus Tuesday's close of 61.86/87. Moves in the domestic share market will also be crucial for cues on foreign fund flows. Shares gained for a fourth session in five, led by blue chips on hopes the central bank would cut its key policy rate. In the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, the one-month contract was at 62.20 while the three-month was at 62.73.

 

India rupee gains on corporate, custodian bank dlr sales

FACTORS TO WATCH

 

 * Yen gains as some BoJ policymakers fret about QE costs

 * Solid yen, yuan rebound aids Asia FX; won firmer

 * Asian shares slip, oil falls ahead of OPEC

 * Foreign institutional investor flows

 * For data on currency futures

 

* Rupee ends at 61.86/87 per dlr vs 61.9350/9450 on Mon

* Gains in other Asian currencies aid sentiment for the rupee

* INR seen staying volatile until policy - trader

The Indian rupee gained on Tuesday after a volatile trading session as dollar selling by custodian banks and a large corporate helped offset importer demand for the greenback.
Traders said gains were also helped by higher Asian currencies on the back of strength in the Japanese yen and a rebound in the Chinese yuan. But sentiment is expected to turn

 more cautious ahead of the upcoming July-September economic growth data on Friday and the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review on Dec. 2. India's economic growth

probably slowed to around 5 percent in the three months to September, slipping from 5.7 percent in the previous quarter, two senior finance ministry sources told Reuters,

putting pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.

"There was good dollar buying interest seen from importers but good flows with custodian banks helped. We could see this seesaw in the rupee continue until the policy,"

said Vikas Babu Chittiprolu, a senior foreign exchange dealer with Andhra Bank.

The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.86/87 per dollar versus Monday's close of 61.9350/9450. Traders are broadly expecting the rupee to hold in a 61.50 to 62.50 range

 until the RBI policy next Tuesday, with most expecting no change in interest rates but only a more dovish policy tone from the RBI. However, gains in the rupee were capped as

 shares fell, retreating from a record high hit earlier in the session as financial firms slumped on worries parliament would delay an insurance bill, while new rules for offshore

derivatives raised worries over foreign flows. In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 62.16 while the three-month was at 62.27.

India rupee weakens as state-run banks buy dlrs; euro fall weighs

* Rupee ends at 61.9350/9450 per dollar vs 61.7625/7725 on Friday

* Heavy dollar demand from state-run banks hurts rupee

* INR may soon move towards 62.50 levels

 
 The Indian rupee weakened on Monday on sustained buying of dollars by state-run banks and importers even as most other Asian currencies rallied on hopes of more foreign flows after monetary stimulus measures in China and Europe.
The sharp fall in the euro following the stimulus talks however weighed on rupee sentiment.Traders expect currency markets to remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy review on Dec. 2. The central bank is expected to adopt a more dovish tone but is seen as unlikely to cut interest rates until February..India is also due to report July-September economic growth data on Friday, adding to the caution.."There was very good demand for dollars from state-run banks which hurt the rupee today," said Hari Chandramgethen, head of foreign exchange trading at South Indian Bank, predicting a range of 61.50 to 62.50 for the rest of the week.

The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.9350/9450 per dollar compared to 61.7625/7725 on Friday..The fall came even as domestic shares hit a record high after China unexpectedly cut rates and as prospects of further stimulus in China and Europe whetted risk appetite globally.Prospect of further reforms at the start of the winter session of parliament on Monday could also prevent much further depreciation in the rupee, traders said, especially as the RBI is seen intervening to keep the rupee from dipping too much below 62 per dollar..In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 62.20 while the three-month was at 62.74.

FACTORS TO WATCH

 

* Euro near 2-yr low as investors bet on more ECB easing

* China easing puts emerging stocks in buoyant mood

* Stocks grind higher after cbank stimulus signal

* Foreign institutional investor flows

* For data on currency futures

 

INDIAN CURRENCY INTRADAY SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVELS: 25.Nov.2014

USDINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Buy Zone and it is showing Strength. It is expected to test Resistance levels 62.06 / 62.18 / 62.38 . And the lower side , it has Strong Support @ 61.86 downside, it may tank to near support Levels such as 61.75 / 61.55 / 61.43 . Currently USDINR is Trading @ 61.95

EURINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Buy Zone and it is showing Strength. It is expected to test Resistance levels 77.07 / 77.23 / 77.53 . And the lower side , it has Strong Support @ 76.76 downside, it may tank to near support Levels such as 76.60 / 76.30 / 76.13 . Currently EURINR is Trading @ 76.90

GBPINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Buy Zone and it is showing Strength. It is expected to test Resistance levels 97.27 / 97.50 / 97.86 . And the lower side , it has Strong Support @ 96.91 downside, it may tank to near support Levels such as 96.69 / 96.33 / 96.11 . Currently GBPINR is Trading @ 97.05

 

JPYINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Sell Zone and it is showing weakness. It is expected to test near Support levels 52.33 / 52.23 / 52.15 . And the upperside, it has Strong Resistance @ 52.41 upperside, it may test Resistance Levels such as 52.52 / 52.60 / 52.70 . Currently JPYINR is Trading @ 52.44

 

 

Live Currency News - 13.Nov.2014

GLOBAL MARKETS ROUNDUP

    * Asian shares mostly steadied on Thursday as investors

awaited a flurry of Chinese economic indicators later in the

day, but energy stocks slumped after oil prices fell to

four-year lows.

    * The dollar took time out from its rally against the yen

and euro early on Thursday as traders awaited a batch of Chinese

and U.S. data, while the British pound languished at 14-month

lows versus its U.S. peer after dovish messages from the Bank of

England.

    * Benchmark Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel on Wednesday

for the first time since 2010 on technical selling, pressure

from a strong dollar and after Saudi Arabia's oil minister

refused to say if the kingdom will support calls from some OPEC

members to cut crude output.

    * U.S. Treasuries prices traded mostly flat on Wednesday,

erasing early gains, after the bond market absorbed $24 billion

in new supply of benchmark U.S. government debt.

                   

    LOCAL MARKETS PREVIOUS CLOSE

    * BSE index 28,008.90 (up 0.35 pct)

    * NSE index 8,383.30 (up 0.25 pct)

    * Rupee 61.4925/5000 per dlr (61.55/56)

    * 10-year bond yield 8.16 pct (8.19 pct) 

    * 5-year OIS rate 7.40 pct (7.41 pct)

    * 1-year OIS rate 7.99 pct (8.01 pct)

    * Call money 7.40/7.50 pct (8.80/8.90 pct)

   

    KEY FACTORS TO WATCH

    * India trade data to be released by Nov. 14, there is no

fixed date for the release of the data.

    * India central bank chief Raghuram Rajan to talk at a

microfinance event at 10 a.m.

   

    OVERNIGHT NEWS

    * India's economic outlook brightened on Wednesday with a

surprise pickup in industrial output and further cooling in

consumer prices, data showed, boosting Prime Minister Narendra

Modi's bid to end the longest slowdown in growth in decades.

 

   

    KEY DEALS

    * Indian generic drugmaker Aurobindo Pharma Ltd

said its U.S. unit won a bankruptcy auction to buy nutritional

supplements maker Natrol Inc for $132.5 million.

         

    USD/INR NDFs (NY closing prices)

    For up-to-date prices, double click PNDF

     Open     High     Low       Close      Volume

    61.79    61.75    61.66     61.68-69      N/A

 

    FII INVESTMENTS-EQUITIES (Net dollars)

    Nov 12*                       $74.80 mln

    Month-to-date**                $1.36 bln

    Year-to-date**                $15.06 bln

    * Provisional NSE data        

    ** Source: Data as per the latest custodial filing as on

Nov. 12 on NSDL's website.

 

    FII INVESTMENTS-DEBT (Net Dollars)  Debt

    Nov. 11                    $225.35 mln                   

    Month-to-date              $597.30 mln

    Year-to-date                $23.14 bln

    * Source: Data as per latest custodial filing as on Nov 12

on NSDL's website.

                             

    GOVERNMENT SECURITIES TRADING (Net buy/sell, in rupees)

                                          Nov 12

    Foreign Banks                        28.90 bln

    Public Sector Banks                 -50.99 bln

    Private Sector Banks                  0.92 bln

    Mutual Funds                         95.28 bln

    Others                               -5.14 bln

    Primary Dealers                      16.79 bln

    

    LIQUIDITY

    * The Reserve Bank of India said on Wednesday it accepted

all 43 bids for 178.49 billion rupees ($2.90 billion) at its

one-day repo auction, through which it injects liquidity into

the banking system.

    * Indian banks' refinancing with RBI rises to 93.70 billion

rupees.

    * Indian banks' cash balances with RBI rise to 3.55 trillion

rupees.

 

Usdinr Free Tips : 12.Nov.2014

Usdinr Free Tips :  12.Nov.2014

USDINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Sell Zone and it is showing weakness. It is expected to test near Support levels 61.62 / 61.58 / 61.52 . And the upperside, it has Strong Resistance @ 61.68 upperside, it may test Resistance Levels such as 61.72 / 61.78 / 61.82 . Currently USDINR is Trading @ 61.66

EURINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Sell Zone and it is showing weakness. It is expected to test near Support levels 76.73 / 76.49 / 76.32 . And the upperside, it has Strong Resistance @ 76.90 upperside, it may test Resistance Levels such as 77.13 / 77.30 / 77.54 . Currently EURINR is Trading @ 76.96

GBPINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Sell Zone and it is showing weakness. It is expected to test near Support levels 97.55 / 97.35 / 96.98 . And the upperside, it has Strong Resistance @ 97.92 upperside, it may test Resistance Levels such as 98.13 / 98.50 / 98.70 . Currently GBPINR is Trading @ 97.76

JPYINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Buy Zone and it is showing Strength. It is expected to test Resistance levels 53.68 / 53.80 / 53.99 . And the lower side , it has Strong Support @ 53.50 downside, it may tank to near support Levels such as 53.38 / 53.19 / 53.07 . Currently JPYINR is Trading @ 53.57

Currency Futures india - Over View

Currency Futures is a standardised foreign exchange derivative contract traded on a recognized stock exchange to buy or sell one currency against another on a specified future date, at a price specified on the date of contract, but does not include a forward contract.

Currency Futures are permitted in US Dollar – Indian Rupee (USD INR), Euro – Rupee (EUR INR), Great Britain Pound – Indian Rupee (GBP INR) and Japanese Yen – Indian Rupee (JPY INR). Currency Futures can be traded through MCX SX, NSE and USE.

Currency Options

Foreign exchange (FX) options are contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell one currency against the other, at a predetermined price and on or before a predetermined date.
The buyer of a call (put) FX option has the right to buy (sell) a currency against another at a specified rate. If this right can only be exercised on a specific date, the option is said to be European, whereas if the option can be exercised on any date till a specific date, the option is said to be American. Currently only USD INR options are permitted for trading in India and the clients can trade currency options through NSE and USE.

What are currency options?

A currency option is a contract that allows the buyer the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying at a stated date and at a stated price. A call option gives the right to buy and put option gives the right to sell. In every currency transaction, one currency is bought and another sold. For example an option to buy US dollars (USD) for Indian Rupees (INR) is an USD Call and INR put. Conversely, an option to sell USD for INR is an USD put and INR call. The other basic likes strike price, expiration period, American style or European style are similar to stock options.

Exchange traded currency options

Exchange traded currency options are standardized products with pre-defined maturities. They are easily accessible with OTC derivatives contracts. Now individuals and corporate can reap benefit out of the currency options. Options are like insurance contracts, they protect you from the downside at the same time allowing you to reap the benefits of any upside. Rupee options would introduce greater flexibility in risk management of corporate and cost control.